• November 4, 2023 12:26 am

Winter Load Shedding Revealed by Eskom

Jul 25, 2023
Winter Load Shedding Revealed by Eskom

Winter Load Shedding Revealed by Eskom. In June and July, Eskom implemented load-shedding between 2,042MW and 6,929MW. This is equivalent to load shedding from stages 3 to 7.

Eskom’s rotational power cuts have been implemented since 2007 and South Africa experienced its worst load shedding yet this year.

Winter Load Shedding Revealed by Eskom

There were load-shedding in South Africa every day except one, according to The Outlier and EskomSePush.

There has already been a significant increase in load-shedding since 2022, despite it being only July.

The story is incomplete, however. Stage 6 load-shedding has already been in effect for 36.4 full days in the first seven months of this year. The whole year last year had only 8.3 days.

The first seven months of 2023 have already seen more full days of stage 3, stage 4, and stage 5 load-shedding than the entire year of 2022.

There is some consolation in the fact that winter load shedding did not reach stage 8 or higher as many energy experts predicted.

Calib Cassim, Eskom’s acting CEO, warned in May that load-shedding could become necessary as the weather cooled.

A large demand-supply imbalance revealed by Eskom’s winter outlook could result in stage 8 load-shedding if its interventions fail.

Eskom warned that load-shedding would have to be implemented every day if unplanned outages averaged 18,000MW over the winter period.

While three Kusile units are out of service, Eskom has prevented the country from experiencing stage 8 power outages.

Through the use of diesel open cycle gas turbines (OCGTs), limiting planned maintenance, and low demand, Eskom achieved better-than-expected performance.

It is important to note, however, that the country is not out of the woods yet. A drop in temperatures could have a significant effect on the energy industry, according to energy analyst Clyde Mallinson.

Eskom’s ageing coal-powered fleet faces immense pressure as winter approaches in South Africa, when electricity demand peaks.

During the winter, Eskom’s coal fleet has been unreliable, and he said the good performance this year might come to an end.

During periods of high demand, Mallinson warned, “The coal fleet may wobble, resulting in stage 7 incidents.”

Load-shedding breakdown over the past decade, courtesy of The Outlier.

Numbers of load shedding

South Africans are regularly informed about the official load-shedding stage by Eskom, but the information is not as accurate as it should be.

Compared to the official load-shedding stages, Eskom’s load-shedding data shows significantly worse power cuts across South Africa.

Based on the number of megawatts the utility cuts, each load-shedding stage is clearly defined.

The first stage of the project is the cutting of 1,000MW from the national grid, the second stage is the cutting of 2,000MW, and the third stage is the cutting of 3,000MW.

Everybody can see how much power is lost from the grid and how the economy is affected by these straightforward definitions.

The country has essentially experienced stage 7 load-shedding this winter when applying this definition to Eskom’s load-shedding data.

Eskom’s official load-shedding stage is shown in the table below along with how much power has been cut from the grid and the stage as defined by Eskom.

Date Load-shedding Reported Stage Defined Stage
Thu, 1 June 6,684 MW Stage 6 Stage 7
Fri, 2 June 3,967 MW Stage 4 Stage 4
Sat, 3 June 3,978 MW Stage 4 Stage 4
Sun, 4 June 2,042 MW Stage 2 Stage 3
Mon, 5 June 4,553 MW Stage 4 Stage 5
Tue, 6 June 3,271 MW Stage 3 Stage 4
Wed, 7 June 3,136 MW Stage 3 Stage 4
Thu, 8 June 2,939 MW Stage 3 Stage 3
Fri, 9 June 3,060 MW Stage 3 Stage 4
Sat, 10 June 4,091 MW Stage 4 Stage 5
Sun, 11 June 3,905 MW Stage 4 Stage 4
Mon, 12 June 3,146 MW Stage 3 Stage 4
Tue, 13 June 3,252 MW Stage 3 Stage 4
Wed, 14 June 3,123 MW Stage 3 Stage 4
Thu, 15 June 2,949 MW Stage 3 Stage 3
Fri, 16 June 2,912 MW Stage 3 Stage 3
Sat, 17 June 3,000 MW Stage 3 Stage 3
Sun, 18 June 3,052 MW Stage 3 Stage 4
Mon, 19 June 3,161 MW Stage 3 Stage 4
Tue, 20 June 3,302 MW Stage 3 Stage 4
Wed, 21 June 3,397 MW Stage 3 Stage 4
Thu, 22 June 3,258 MW Stage 3 Stage 4
Fri, 23 June 3,041 MW Stage 3 Stage 4
Sat, 24 June 3,044 MW Stage 3 Stage 4
Sun, 25 June 3,108 MW Stage 3 Stage 4
Mon, 26 June 3,287 MW Stage 3 Stage 4
Tue, 27 June 3,218 MW Stage 3 Stage 4
Wed, 28 June 3,281 MW Stage 3 Stage 4
Thu, 29 June 3,121 MW Stage 3 Stage 4
Fri, 30 June 3,076 MW Stage 3 Stage 4
Sat, 1 July 3,032 MW Stage 3 Stage 4
Sun, 2 July 3,184 MW Stage 3 Stage 4
Mon, 3 July 3,379 MW Stage 3 Stage 4
Tue, 4 July 3,276 MW Stage 3 Stage 4
Wed, 5 July 3,454MW Stage 3 Stage 4
Thu, 6 July 3,369 MW Stage 3 Stage 4
Fri, 7 July 2,795 MW Stage 3 Stage 3
Sat, 8 July 2,708 MW Stage 3 Stage 3
Sun, 9 July 3,054 MW Stage 3 Stage 4
Mon, 10 July 3,771 MW Stage 4 Stage 4
Tue, 11 July 4,082 MW Stage 4 Stage 5
Wed, 12 July 6,432 MW Stage 6 Stage 7
Thu, 13 July 6,929MW Stage 6 Stage 7
Fri, 14 July 6,416 MW Stage 6 Stage 7
Sat, 15 July 6,293 MW Stage 6 Stage 7
Sun, 16 July 4,234 MW Stage 4 Stage 5
Mon, 17 July 4,616 MW Stage 4 Stage 5
Tue, 18 July 3,198 MW Stage 3 Stage 4
Wed, 19 July 4,203 MW Stage 4 Stage 5
Thu, 20 July 4,312 MW Stage 4 Stage 5
Fri, 21 July 5,272 MW Stage 5 Stage 6
Sat, 22 July 4,199 MW Stage 4 Stage 5

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